Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.901150 1.055706 1.228699 1.436697 1.680065 1.955908 2.292465
2024-10-27 0.627365 0.822585 1.066653 1.394343 1.823213 2.366091 3.106732
2024-11-03 0.503200 0.714809 1.001019 1.416711 2.005973 2.812988 4.005404
2024-11-10 0.444494 0.673850 1.004518 1.516473 2.290867 3.421570 5.204389
2024-11-17 0.388609 0.623105 0.980313 1.564712 2.499628 3.942306 6.348395
2024-11-24 0.337182 0.568352 0.938199 1.573787 2.642723 4.375628 7.414414
2024-12-01 0.292356 0.515705 0.889337 1.560830 2.742726 4.746772 8.425356
2024-12-08 0.256887 0.472585 0.848607 1.552979 2.846066 5.131711 9.508614
2024-12-15 0.230896 0.441792 0.823895 1.567950 2.988797 5.599907 10.802335
2024-12-22 0.199737 0.396535 0.766238 1.512848 2.992359 5.812526 11.644987
2024-12-29 0.192379 0.395625 0.790871 1.617341 3.314115 6.663464 13.841930
2025-01-05 0.169221 0.359790 0.742695 1.570162 3.326837 6.911024 14.856713
2025-01-12 0.148301 0.326107 0.695364 1.520357 3.332111 7.154417 15.922684
2025-01-19 0.130329 0.296184 0.651935 1.473083 3.337190 7.400877 17.040383
2025-01-26 0.120493 0.282683 0.641601 1.496576 3.500688 8.010119 19.059230
2025-02-02 0.117713 0.284808 0.665935 1.601977 3.865374 9.117021 22.395719
2025-02-09 0.111230 0.277227 0.667029 1.652946 4.109358 9.979869 25.279858
2025-02-16 0.102777 0.263590 0.651964 1.662535 4.254118 10.626889 27.728744
2025-02-23 0.093919 0.247612 0.628973 1.648844 4.338181 11.135981 29.901042
2025-03-02 0.086299 0.233706 0.609220 1.640548 4.434802 11.689513 32.273887
2025-03-09 0.080624 0.224125 0.599184 1.656368 4.597414 12.435414 35.279577
2025-03-16 0.072163 0.205742 0.563643 1.598146 4.550699 12.620966 36.761316
2025-03-23 0.071609 0.209352 0.587604 1.708555 4.990142 14.187847 42.419912